eNews 25 June 2019 - Future of Work (part 2)
FROM THE DESK OF CHDC'S REGIONAL SKILLS DEVELOPMENT COORDINATOR
In a previous article on Jobs Queensland’s Future of Work project, I discussed the effects of technology within the drivers of change. In this article, I will focus on the demographic and social drivers of change. These drivers can cause changes to the substantive content of work and work arrangements.
In Jobs Queensland’s discussion paper The Future of Work in Queensland to 2030, it states:
The interplay between these changes has the potential to create a ‘perfect storm’, presenting new and potentially amplifying existing opportunities and challenges for Queenslanders.
Demographic Changes
Australian population growth has been on average at 1.5% over the past 10 years, while Queensland has grown at 1.8% over the same period. While population growth has historically been a key factor underpinning economic growth in Queensland, it will also continue to be an important contributor to growth in the future (Queensland Government, 2018).
These rates of population growth have been largely attributable to increased levels of net overseas migration. Australia’s migration system is designed to attract migrants with desirable skills and qualifications (Select Committee on the Future of Work and Workers, 2018). Increased migration has helped our economies adjust to large swings in the overall demand for labour and address specific skills shortages.
Ageing population
Despite this increase in relatively young migrants, the share of the Australian working age population (aged 15–64) has been falling and is projected to continue for at least a generation. This reflects a combination of the ongoing transition of baby boomers into the retirement age bracket, lower fertility rates and increased life expectancy. By 2040, it is estimated that 20 per cent of the population is expected to be aged over 65, compared with 15 per cent today (Lowe, 2018). Queensland’s population is similarly ageing, with the proportion of people aged 65 years and over set to rise from 13 per cent in 2011 to between 19 and 21 per cent in 2036 (Hajkowicz et al., 2018).
Female participation
Another significant change is the increasing labour force participation of women over the past number of decades. Labour supply in Australia across virtually all age groups has been boosted, rising from 43 per cent in 1978 to nearly 60 per cent in 2015 (Hajkowicz et al., 2016). This shift has been assisted by policy changes related to parental leave and child care, and the increased prevalence of flexible and part-time work opportunities. Changing societal attitudes and educational attainment, reflected by increased time spent in study and changing fields of study, have also played a significant role (Lowe, 2018; Australian Treasury, 2015).
Educational attainment
Increasing educational attainment by both men and women is another indicator of our changing demography. Over the past decade, the percentage of Australians with no post-school qualifications has declined by almost ten per cent, with a notable shift in educational attainment towards higher level qualifications (ABS, 2017).
Social Impacts
Urbanisation and Regions
In 2017, population growth in Queensland has been largely concentrated within the south east corner. This area accounted for 88.3 per cent of Queensland’s growth for the year, reflecting the increasing urbanisation of the region (QGSO, 2018a). Over the past few decades, Queensland has seen a steady trend of people moving away from inland communities and towards coastal centres that offer more when it comes to employment, education, health and lifestyle opportunities (Deloitte, 2017). According to projections, this concentration of Queensland’s population is expected to continue, with eight of the state’s top ten local government areas (LGAs) by population size in 2036 located in South East Queensland (QGSO, 2017).
As technology shifts the economy towards higher value, knowledge-intensive work, vibrant and creative metropolitan areas (Yigicanlar, 2010) offer significant advantages. Within Queensland this transition presents a challenge for rural and remote areas affected by persistent workforce attraction and retention issues (Becker, Hyland and Soosay, 2013).
It has long been argued that digital transformations, such as the internet and cloud computing, would break down the barriers of distance. This vision is not playing out as first imagined. Even as telecommunications and travel have steadily grown cheaper, people are choosing to live closer together rather than further apart (Deloitte, 2017). I had mentioned previously that the population is becoming more tribal in wishing to be closer to social groups, and families to a lesser extent.
The combination of forces driving the transition of the Australian economy will unavoidably create friction points in specific regional areas and localities across the country, while being the source of considerable growth and prosperity in others.
Some of the key findings of the report in Demographics and Social impact are:
Areas of consensus
· Like many developed nations, Australia’s population is ageing, and this has implications for both employers and the labour force more broadly.
o People are living longer, and many are expected to remain in the workforce longer.
o Workplaces are changing as they endeavour to adjust to a multigenerational workforce.
· Australia is becoming more urbanised.
o This trend is also evident in Queensland.
o Regional restructuring often occurs as people migrate to where the jobs and opportunities are.
o Rural and remote communities are becoming more marginalised and isolated.
Areas of contention
· The extent to which inequality is rising in Australia and how changes in technology and the broader economy will affect this projected trajectory.
· How technology and the move towards a more knowledge- and service-based economy will affect regional and rural areas.
In the next article we will address the final of the key drivers of change – Legal, Institutional and Policy.
Contact CHDC Regional Skills Development
Coordinator Brad Stallard E: bstallard@chdc.com.au or T: (07)
4982 4386 or M: 0488
780 181.